This is just one example of ever changing track errors in tropical cyclone forecasts.

It is still impossible to forecast an exact tropical cyclone track. All models vary in skill for every run of forecast models and for every storm. I would much rather have the correct forecast track and wrong time of position than correct time of position and wrong forecast track. When an individual model gets updated its skill can be much worse. Previous forecast model runs can have better skill than its latest run.

The constantly changing errors in point-to-point tracks is a reason why to ignore NHC's (population-bias) point-to-point track forecasts but use NHC's margin-of-error ranges and guidance models margin-of-error ranges from latest initialized models and previously initialized models.

Charley

5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH....A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA BAY.

5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO BAYPORT. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO BAYPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA BAY.

11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004...2100Z...CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR FLORIDA...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

7 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004...2300Z...CHARLEY WEAKENING WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

9 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004...0100Z...WEAKENING CHARLEY MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ORLANDO AREA...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004...0300Z...CHARLEY MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ABLEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO CHINCOTEAGUE...INCLUDING THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA.

2 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...0600Z...CHARLEY EXITING FLORIDA...HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO CHINCOTEAGUE...INCLUDING THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM JUPITER INLET TO JUST SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.

5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...0900Z...CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK INCLUDING ALL OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC...CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE TO SANDY HOOK INCLUDING ALL OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC...CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD.

8 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...1200Z...CHARLEY NEARS SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY INCLUDING ALL OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC...CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS.

11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...1500Z...CHARLEY ON THE COAST NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY INCLUDING ALL OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC...CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM SANDY HOOK TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

2 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...1800Z...CHARLEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER NORTH CAROLINA...THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...AND THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.

5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...2100Z...CHARLEY INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY....NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.

8 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...0000Z...CHARLEY BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PASSES THE NORFOLK VIRGINIA AREA...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE SOUND...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT...DELAWARE BAY....NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004...0300Z......CHARLEY ALMOST EXTRATROPICAL...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND...AND ELSEWHERE WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NEW HAVE CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND EASTWARD.

5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004...0900Z...CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL ON LONG ISLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND EASTWARD.

11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004...1500Z...CHARLEY HAS DISSIPATED NEAR NEW ENGLAND...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

Forecast errors in nautical miles from the best track fix. Errors less than the NHC official (OFCL) forecast are shown in bold-face type.

ATCF track model dat abbreviations

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